Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Apr 30 1230 UTC.
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2653 (S09W39, Hrx/alpha) produced a long-duration B3 flare at 30/0012 UTC and an associated CME was observed in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 30/0236 UTC. Analysis of this event is underway in order to determine if the CME has an Earth-directed component.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (31 Apr-02 May).
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 15,914 pfu observed at 29/1835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (30 Apr-02 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speed varied between 380-407 km/s, total field was steady near 5 nT, and the Bz component of the magnetic field briefly reached -5 nT mid-period. The phi angle was generally negative this period with a transition to a positive solar sector orientation between 29/1615-30/0030 UTC.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through midday on day one (30 Apr). By late on day one through day two (30 Apr-01 May) a weak enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. A slow return to nominal levels is expected on day three (02 May).
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind environment.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period (30 Apr-02 May) with isolated active periods likely on 01 May due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
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