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Sunday, April 30, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Apr 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2653 (S09W39, Hrx/alpha) produced a long-duration B3 flare at 30/0012 UTC and an associated CME was observed in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 30/0236 UTC. Analysis of this event is underway in order to determine if the CME has an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the forecast period (31 Apr-02 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 15,914 pfu observed at 29/1835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (30 Apr-02 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speed varied between 380-407 km/s, total field was steady near 5 nT, and the Bz component of the magnetic field briefly reached -5 nT mid-period. The phi angle was generally negative this period with a transition to a positive solar sector orientation between 29/1615-30/0030 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through midday on day one (30 Apr). By late on day one through day two (30 Apr-01 May) a weak enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. A slow return to nominal levels is expected on day three (02 May).


24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period (30 Apr-02 May) with isolated active periods likely on 01 May due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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