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Saturday, August 5, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...



Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Aug 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2670 (S04E27, Hsx/alpha) stable and inactive throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels throughout the forecast period (05-07 Aug).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels this period in response to elevated geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on day one (05 Aug) and high levels are likely on days two and three (06-07 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (05-07 Aug).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated the transitions from a CIR into a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a peak of 13 nT for the period to 4-7 nT after 04/1430 UTC. The Bz component was variable with a brief maximum deflection of -10 nT early in the reporting period and remained mostly between +/- 5 nT throughout the rest of the day. Solar wind speeds remained elevated with speeds predominantly between 650-750 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in the positive sector over the past 24 hours.

Forecast: The near-Earth solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next three days (05-07 Aug) as CH HSS influence prevails.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active this period under the continued influence a CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (05 Aug) due to continued CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day two (06 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (07 Aug) as influence from the CH HSS wanes.

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://ift.tt/17yXOGK

Live Aurora mapping is at http://ift.tt/2lYUS2h

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + http://ift.tt/1iWH4ta + http://ift.tt/1wJXm19

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

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Visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com

See the live aurora mapping is at http://ift.tt/2lYUS2h

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