SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009

ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP09

QST de W1AW 

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA  February 27, 2015

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP009

ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers over the past week were about the same

(59) as last week (54.6), and average daily solar flux declined,

from 121.4 to 116.3.

 

Average daily planetary A index increased from 9 to 11.3, and

average daily mid-latitude A index also was higher, from 7 to 9.3.

 

These numbers compare the seven day period from February 19 to 25

with the previous seven days.

 

The latest NOAA/USAF solar flux forecast shows solar flux at 110 on

February 27 through March 1, 105 on March 2 to 4, then 115 and 130

on March 5 and 6, 135 on March 7 to 9, 130 on March 10, 125 on March

11 and 12, 120 on March 13 to 17, and 115 on March 18 to 23. Solar

flux then reaches a peak of 135 on April 3 to 5 before declining

again.

 

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 20, 22 and 15 on February 27

through March 2, 8 on March 3 to 6, 10 on March 7 and 8, 5 on March

9 to 13, then 10 and 5 on March 14 and 15, 15 on March 16 and 17, 8

on March 18, 5 on March 19 to 21, 10 on March 2 and 8 on March 23 to

25.

 

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW believes geomagnetic conditions will be quiet to

unsettled February 27, active to disturbed February 28, disturbed on

March 1, active to disturbed March 2, quiet to unsettled March 3 and

4, mostly quiet March 5, quiet on March 6, mostly quiet March 7,

quiet to active March 8, quiet to unsettled March 9, quiet to active

March 10, quiet on March 11 to 13, mostly quiet March 14, quiet to

unsettled March 15, quiet to active March 16 to 18, mostly quiet

March 19 and 20, quiet to unsettled March 21, quiet to active March

22, active to disturbed March 23, quiet to unsettled March 24, and

mostly quiet March 25.

 

Petr believes increases in solar wind are mostly unpredictable, but

some peaks are expected around February 28, March 1, 8, 16 and 17,

and 22 and 23.

 

At 0513 UTC on February 27 the Australian Space Forecast Centre

issued a revised geomagnetic disturbance warning. An earlier warning

said the predicted disturbance was due to a coronal mass ejection,

but the cause was revised to a strong solar wind stream. They

believe geomagnetic activity may rise to minor storm levels on

February 28 and March 1.

 

Tom Frenaye, K1KI sent a couple of links referencing the Reverse

Beacon Network as crowdsourcing for detecting solar disturbances to

the ionosphere.

 

See:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/swe.v12.12/issuetoc

 

https://eos.org/research-spotlights/radio-blackout-ham-radio-operational-scientific-instrument

 

Max White, M0VNG forward an article about the sun from phys.org:

 

http://phys.org/news/2015-02-magnetic-field-sun.html

 

Buzz Kutcher, K3GWK in Jenkinsburg, Georgia (EM73xh) on February 15

at 1836 UTC worked S01WS in Western Sahara on 10 meters FM. This was

his first contact on 10 FM, and it was full quieting, sounding the

same as when he works his close neighbor on FM simplex.

 

Shel Darack, WA2UBK of Livingston, New Jersey wrote:

 

"Band conditions were very good for me using 100W into a sloping

dipole on 40m Saturday night and tri-band antenna on 10 and 15

during Sunday for the ARRL CW DX Contest.

 

During the last hour of the contest, JA's were strong and easy to

work on 15 meters using 100W and a small tri-band antenna at my New

Jersey QTH.

 

Later, after the contest and well past sunset I noticed SSB signals

that I could not quite tune in for clarity and thought maybe it was

LSB.

 

I discovered I was hearing one side of a JA QSO in Japanese. With my

antenna pointed nearly north toward Japan, I continued to listen for

a while and soon a W0 came on exactly on frequency asking if the

frequency was in use. He asked again and after no response called

CQ. A W7 replied. The W0 commented that there was no activity on the

band. I could hear both US stations and the JA. After a while

propagation to the US stations faded out but I could hear the JA by

then working a pile up of US stations."

 

Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia (FM19cj) wrote,

"The solar flux has dropped into the danger zone for good 10 meter

conditions to EU. During the ARRL CW DX contest it was just below

120 and the band was slow to open to EU on Saturday. I checked 10 at

1330Z and of the 4 EU I worked then, only an IT9 was louder direct

path, the rest were peaking around 140 degrees over eastern SA. I

returned to find a mix of weak and strong direct path EU at 1452Z

almost 3 hours past my sunrise, but the band never really opened to

the Baltic states and Scandinavia.

 

Most of my QSO's were more southerly central and western EU and the

run ran dry at 1727Z, so I went back to 15. Both days prop to the

Caribbean seemed marginal along with very northern SA, farther south

was OK. The majority of JA's were worked right at the start Friday

evening with the big guns having S 7-9 signals. I found DU3 who is

exactly the same heading as JA and RT0F also same heading of 330.

KH6 was pretty loud then and for both afternoons into evening along

with ZL, but no VK's were heard. Sunday into EU at 1322Z was much

like a high SFI opening with good signals even from Russia and

Scandinavia. I was called by Saudi Arabia, UN7, and two VU's all

having strong signals. I ended up with 845 QSO's in 78 countries.

 

Fifteen meters was the best overall band for me with 933 QSO's in

100 countries. One of the PVRC skilled ops, K3RV, locally made over

1900 QSO's in over 120 countries. Both days conditions were

excellent to East Asia with many loud JA's and EU, and also good

openings also into central Asia. In the first hour a JW called me

and I logged big gun stations from OH and SM as well, not bad for

2-3 AM at their QTH. There must have been some auroral sporadic E.

Also logged were Hong Kong, China, and several loud Hawaiians.

 

Signals from EU were quite loud by 1153Z Saturday and the big guns

from about HA westward were in both days past 2130Z when the

majority of EU ops were on 20 by 2000Z. EU signals were the loudest

of any band from all over on 15 and AF was loud until 2200Z.

 

Propagation on 20 was good to everywhere at some time of the

contest. At 0100Z about half of EU was pretty loud from DL, OK, and

HA farther south and west and all of northern EU. AF was loud (D4,

CN, EA8, EA9, CR3, Z8 Southern Sudan and ZR9 South Africa) as well

as everyone to the south, all of Siberia, and KH6 as well. It was a

lot of DX fun and rotator workout. EU was loud either side of my

sunrise and again from about 1830-2130Z. On Sunday through a drone

of EU callers, I heard JA's, BG2 and E20 (Thailand) louder than EU

and also was called by RI1ANZ from Antarctica long path. The morning

20M Antarctica LP is open frequently, but not utilized that often.

Clearing 7 inches of snow that fell Saturday cost me quite a few EU

QSO's Sunday afternoon.

 

40 was about as good as it gets with strong EU signals from central

and south EU throughout the evening, although not as strong around

sunset. I logged a few Asians including 7Z in Saudi Arabia, a few

AF, and DP1POL in Antarctica. JA's were weak to me, but my antenna

is only a sloping dipole to JA, logged about 4 along with ZL.

 

80 was in decent shape to EU especially to UR and UA6 with many of

them logged. OH0 and two JA's were logged as well as loud sunrise

KH6. I had a nice run of about 80 mostly EU stations the first night

around 0400Z. I found KL7 around sunrise Sunday and we moved down to

160 successfully also! I finished with 156 QSO's in 39 countries in

limited time there.

 

My 160 meter score was probably my best ever in ARRL DX with 41

QSO's in 30 countries largely thanks to finding very good EU

conditions at 0300Z the first night. I worked as far east as RW7 and

UR and did get a few EU to answer CQ's. There was no EU sunrise peak

here like they were getting in New England; signals were much weaker

than 0300Z. The second night was poor to EU, but I did manage 2

brand new 160 countries, TI9 and LU. The LU8 had a very good signal,

but could barely copy me through his summer QRN. I also logged

Ecuador."

 

KD2BD, John Magliacane of Sea Girt, New Jersey emailed a blast from

the past, some old email (from me), ARRL bulletins, and various

posts from the late 1980s and early 1990s on Usenet and the amateur

packet radio network, which he recovered from archives on an old

hard drive.

 

I hope to post some newly recovered ARRL Propagation Bulletins from

1990-1991 at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . If

you find any old archives such as this, please contact me at

k7ra@arrl.net .

 

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL

Technical Information Service at

http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the

numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past

propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good

information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

 

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve

overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

 

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL

bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

 

Sunspot numbers for February 19 through 25 were 86, 53, 54, 49, 44,

63, and 64, with a mean of 59. 10.7 cm flux was 118.7, 119.7, 116.1,

117.5, 116.8, 114.4, and 111, with a mean of 116.3.  Estimated

planetary A indices were 8, 6, 7, 7, 17, 25, and 9, with a mean of

11.3. Estimated mid- latitude A indices were 5, 4, 8, 6, 14, 21, and

7, with a mean of 9.3.

NNNN

/EX