Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Apr 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2650 (N09E50, Cao/beta) produced a B5/Sf flare at 10/1821 UTC and a B3 flare at 11/0300 UTC. Otherwise flare activity was near background levels. Region 2648 (S03W55) remains a spotless plage region.

The filament eruption from the NE quadrant of the Sun (centered at approximately N16E35) mentioned in the previous discussion was associated with a CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at 10/0125 UTC. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling determined a possible glancing blow from the CME, with arrival on 15 April.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class activity through the forecast period (11-13 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 3,860 pfu observed at 10/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (11-13 Apr). No solar radiation storms are expected during the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of near background solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds were primarily around 425 km/s. Total field was steady around 5 to 7 nT. Bz was mostly northward for the first half of the period, then became more variable in the latter half, with a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Phi angle was negative until near 11/0000 UTC when it switched to a negative sector.

Forecast: A weak connection with an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS is possible during days one and two (11-12 Apr) of the forecast period.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels but reached active levels during the last synoptic period (11/09-12 UTC).

Forecast: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next two days (11-12 Apr), with isolated active periods, due to the possibility of interfacing with an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected to return on day three (13 Apr).

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://ift.tt/17yXOGK

Live Aurora mapping is at http://ift.tt/2lYUS2h

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + http://ift.tt/1iWH4ta + http://ift.tt/1wJXm19

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We’re on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

from dxnews http://ift.tt/2p3rDgd
via IFTTT