Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report,...

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2017 Apr 10 0321 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 April 2017

Solar activity ranged from very low to high during the period due to multiple M-class flares from Region 2644 (N13, L=57, class/area Fkc/520 on 03 April). The first was an M1/Sf flare observed at 03/0105 UTC. The second M-flare was an M5/2n at 03/1429 UTC with an associated Type II (estimated shock speed 746 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed with both flares, however, neither was deemed to be Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 05-08 April, high levels on 04, 09 April, and very high levels on 03 April. The largest flux of the period was 53,552 pfu at 03/1330 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm conditions. The period began under the influence of a southern polar, negative polarity, coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Total field ranged between 2 and 6 nT until approximately 04/0000 UTC when it began to increase to a period maximum of 16 nT at 04/1019 UTC. The Bz component reached a period minimum value of -13 nT at 04/0932 UTC. Total field values were at near nominal levels between 05/2200 and 07/2000 when Bt ranged from 2 to 7 nT. An additional enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field occured shortly after 07/2000 UTC when Bt increased to 10 nT in conjunction with a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) from a negative to a positve solar sector orientation. Solar wind speed began the period near 445 km/s and peaked to a maximum speed of 680 km/s at 08/1544 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 04, 09 April, and quiet to active levels on 03, 05-08 April.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 April - 06 May 2017

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity on 10-17 April and 05-06 May. Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) on 18-30 April and 01-04 May due to potential in Regions 2644 and 2645 (S10, L=18, class/area Ekc/700 on 03 April).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 10-12, 18-28 April and 01, 06 May with very high levels likely on 29-30 April due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 10-13, 17-19, 23-29 April, and 01-06 May with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 17, 23-27 April and G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely on 23 April due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

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