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Thursday, June 1, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...



Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Jun 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to several C-class flares from new Region 2661 (N06E64, Cao/Beta). The largest flare was a C6 with an accompanying type II radio sweep (1459 km/s) at 0143 UTC. The region also produced several B-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class flares all three days (01-03 Jun) due to the flare potential of Region 2661.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on day one (01 Jun) and normal to moderate levels on days two and three (02-03 Jun) due to effects associated with CIR and CH HSS onset. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field strength was between 1 and 8 nT, while the Bz component was mostly northward. Solar wind speed decreased from 400 km/s to end of period speeds around 340 km/s. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is anticipated to be at nominal levels on day one (01 Jun). Days two and three are expected to see enhanced conditions due to the onset of a CIR and subsequent CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (01 Jun). Days two and three (02-03 Jun) are expected to see unsettled to active levels due to the onset of an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS.

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