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Thursday, June 29, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...



Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Jun 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2664 (N18W39, Cso/beta) underwent decay and produced a long duration B1 flare with an associated partial halo CME. Coronal dimming was observed in AIA/193 imagery around Region 2664. Further forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling are needed to determine whether the CME is Earth-directed and if so, the timing of the event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (29 Jun-1 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels all three days (29 Jun-1 Jul) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative nominal conditions. Total field strength ranged primarily from 3 to 5 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed was between 400 and 450 km/s. The phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: A small, isolated positive polarity CH HSS is anticipated to rotate into a weak Earth connected position on day one (29 Jun), causing a minor increase in solar wind speed. This weak enhancement is likely to decrease as the CH rotates away from a geoeffective position, but waning effects from the CH HSS may cause a slightly disturbed IMF to continue into day two (30 Jun). A return to more ambient, background like conditions is expected by day three (1 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with a few isolated unsettled periods on days one and two (29-30 Jun) due to responses associated with the disturbed solar wind environment. The overall planetary response is expected to be quiet on day three (1 Jul).

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