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Monday, June 26, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...



Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Jun 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2664 (N18W00, Dso/beta) displayed penumbral development and consolidation in its leader. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (26-28 Jun).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (26-28 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds steadily increased through the period from around 435 km/s to a peak of 582 km/s at 26/1035 UTC. Total field strength was between 4 and 10 nT while the Bz component dropped as low as -6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive throughout the reporting period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect decreasing influence from the positive polarity CH HSS on day one (26 Jun). A nominal solar wind environment is expected on days two (27 Jun) and early on day three (28 Jun). Later on day three there will likely be an additional minor enhancement from a small trans-equitorial, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (26 Jun) due to waning CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day two (27 Jun) and into early on day three (28 Jun). Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely late on day three (28 Jun) due to the anticipated influence from an additional weak, positive polarity CH HSS.

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