SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045

ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP45

QST de W1AW

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA November 8, 2013

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP045

ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity eased off over the past week, with average daily

sunspot numbers declining nearly 30 points from 161.6 to 131.7, and

average daily solar flux down over 12 points from 158.3 to 146.

Geomagnetic indicators were quiet. Still, activity remains strong.

The last three days of the reporting week (November 4-6) had

increasingly stronger sunspot numbers, all higher than the week's

average. The same is true for solar flux values, each of the past

few days with numbers higher than the average for the week.

Recently we noted a near-term peak in solar flux at 155 predicted

for November 22-25, but now that peak has moved, and values

predicted for those dates are 135-140.

A new short term peak is predicted for the next few days, at 150 on

November 8, 155 on November 9, 160 on November 10, 155 on November

11-12, 150 on November 13, 140 on November 14-15, 135 on November

16, 130 on November 17-20, 135 on November 21-22, 140 on November

23-28, 145 on November 29 through December 1, 140 on December 2, and

135 on December 3-6.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 8, 5 on November 9-10,

10 on November 11, 12 on November 12, 8 on November 13, 5 on

November 14 through December 2, 8 on December 3-4, 5 on December 5-6

and then 8, 10, 8 and 8 on December 7-10.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH believes we should see mostly quiet geomagnetic

conditions on November 8, quiet to unsettled November 9, mostly

quiet November 10, active to disturbed November 11, quiet to active

November 12, quiet to unsettled November 13, mostly quiet November

14, quiet November 15-18, mostly quiet November 19, quiet November

20-25, mostly quiet November 26, quiet to unsettled November 27,

quiet to active November 28-29, quiet November 30, active to

disturbed December 1, quiet to unsettled December 2, and quiet

December 3-4.

A week ago NASA put out a revised solar cycle prediction. You can

read it at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml. The only

difference was that the smoothed sunspot number maximum predicted

for this cycle is 65 and in Summer 2013. The change is just one

point - last month they thought it would be 66 in Fall 2013.

Why the prediction for last Summer? Because it is a smoothed sunspot

number, and that is a value taken from an average over one year. We

won't know the actual number until six months after the fact.

We heard from Bob Foster again this week. Turns out he is N9BGC of

Waverly, Iowa, and on November 1 he wrote, "Last weekend was the

hottest propagation I have heard on 10 meters and 15 meters in my 43

years as a ham. Signals were 5-9 from Kazakhstan to Japan. Hungary

was 59 in the evening on 40 meters. Mine is a very modest station: A

semi-vintage Kenwood 520SE running barefoot into a ground mounted

Gap vertical antenna."

Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas (EM28) reports that on October

31 he heard the VY0SNB beacon on 6 meters on 50.048 MHz at 1620 UTC.

This beacon is located in Nunavut, between the northern tip of

Quebec and Greenland. Jon says it was probably double-hop E-skip.

Jon also reported (in a message titled "10 Meters Hot") that back on

October 22 he worked G1HPD on 10 meter SSB at 1810 UTC. He wrote,

"We have recently moved - so I don't have any HF antennas up yet. I

noted spots that 10 was hot to Europe, so I put a stock CB mag mount

whip on the Weber 'Genesis' BBQ grill out on the patio. Used a MFJ

tuner and 10 watts. G1HPD was hitting 20 over S-9 and gave me a

'5x5' report. For good measure I also worked KG4WV Gitmo (Guantanamo

Bay, Cuba) with 59 reports."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,

email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL

Technical Information Service web page at,

http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the

numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past

propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good

information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve

overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL

bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 31 through November 6 were 128, 95, 123,

143, 151, 134, and 148, with a mean of 131.7. 10.7 cm flux was

142.6, 145, 141.6, 143.5, 147.3, 148.5, and 153.5, with a mean of

146. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 3, 6, 5, 5, and 4,

with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 4, 3,

7, 4, 4, and 3, with a mean of 4.4.

NNNN

/EX