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Friday, November 15, 2013

ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 15, 2013
To all radio amateurs

ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity remains robust. Yesterday, Thursday, November 14 the
daily sunspot number rose to 234, a number not seen since the last
blast of the second peak of the previous solar cycle, exactly a
decade ago.

Way back on October 27 through November 1, 2003 the daily sunspot
numbers were 238, 230, 330, 293, 266, and 277. That was it. Nothing
as high as a sunspot number of 234 since then.

But the average daily sunspot numbers over the past week declined
from 131.7 to 126.1, less than six points. A few off days, November
9-11 contributed to the decline, but otherwise sunspot activity over
the week was strong, beginning at 159 and 160 on November 7-8. The
reporting week did not include yesterday's over-the-top sunspot
number. That will show in next week's average.

Solar flux was up nearly eleven points, rising from an average of
146 on October 31 through November 6 to 156.9 in the recent period,
November 7-13. The solar flux on Thursday, November 14 was 175.8.

The latest prediction shows solar flux at 175 on November 15-17, 170
on November 18-19, 165 on November 20-21, then 150, 145, 140 and 135
on November 22-25, 130 on November 26-27, 135 on November 28, 140 on
November 29-30, 135 on December 1-3, 130 on December 4, 135 on
December 5-6, then 130 and 135 on December 7-8 and 140 on December

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12 and 10 on November 15-17, 5 on
November 18 through December 3, 8 on December 4, 5 on December 5, 12
on December 6, 10 on December 7-8, 5 on December 9-11 and 8 on
December 12-13.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sees the
geomagnetic field as quiet on November 15-16, mostly quiet November
17-18, quiet to unsettled November 19-20, quiet again November
21-25, quiet to unsettled November 26-27, active to disturbed
November 28, mostly quiet November 29-30, quiet to active December
1-2, mostly quiet December 3, quiet December 4, mostly quiet
December 5, quiet to active December 6-8, and quiet December 9-11.

Conditions should be good for the ARRL SSB Sweepstakes Contest this
weekend and probably also good for the CQ Worldwide CW DX Contest on
the following weekend.

Thanks to Jason Warren, WA2LJW of New Paltz, New York, John
Campbell, K4NFE of Huntsville, Alabama, Ron McCollum, W7GTF, way up
in the North Cascades in icy Winthrop, Washington and others for the
articles in the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post about
weakening solar activity. We've heard a lot about this recently, and
it seems like a good time to focus instead on the great conditions
we have right now!

Terry Glass, N0YXE of Overland Park, Kansas has been excited to hear
Japan on 10 meters with his 36 foot end-fed wire, but just as things
are getting interesting, his radio is dead and back to the factory
authorized service depot it goes.

Here in North America we hear about or even see Aurora Borealis, but
down under it is Aurora Australis that appears in the Southern
Hemisphere. Check this article about the sky lighting up in

Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote: "A rare 6 meter F2
opening to the Caribbean and northern South America occurred
Saturday morning November 9.

"I got up around 9:50 am CST (1550 UTC) after working the night
shift and saw the DX cluster loaded up with 6 meter DX spots. I had
just got a M2 loop up in the attic this week as a temporary antenna.
Turned on the radio and FM5AN was hitting 40 dB over S-9 on 50.115
MHz! I worked him at 1556 UTC followed by a really loud P43A on
50.120 MHz at 1603 UTC. P43A said I was well over S-9 on the loop.
Then packed up the car with the portable antenna and set up about a
mile west. By the time I set up, the band was fading and P43A was
dropping out at 1630 UTC. I heard K3PA in EM29 also working some of
the DX.

"The opening was sparked by 'a gusty stream of solar wind is
buffeting Earth's magnetic field, sparking auroras around both of
our planet's poles on Nov. 9th.' - The
K index was 4."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at,

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at, For an explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
propagation bulletins is at,
information and tutorials on propagation are at

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at

Sunspot numbers for November 7 through 13 were 159, 160, 95, 90,
104, 147, and 128, with a mean of 126.1. 10.7 cm flux was 148, 146,
148.1, 154.1, 163.7, 167.5, and 171, with a mean of 156.9. Estimated
planetary A indices were 11, 4, 16, 10, 16, 2, and 3, with a mean of
8.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 3, 14, 9, 13, 2, and
2, with a mean of 7.7.

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