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Friday, March 31, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Mar 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2644 (N12W30, Eso/beta) remained unchanged, but did produce a few B-class flares. Region 2645 (S10E09, Eki/beta) continued to exhibited leader spot growth with moderate intermediate spot development. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with C-class flares likely. With Region 2645 continuing to show moderate growth, a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) exists during the forecast period (31 Mar-02 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels with a peak flux of 24,432 pfu observed at 30/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels, with a chance of exceeding very high levels, all three days (31 Mar-02 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced as CH HSS influence persisted. Total field strength was steady between 3 nT to 6 nT while the Bz component ranged from +4 nT to -6 nT. Solar wind speed exhibited an unsteady increase from near 600 km/s to peak speeds near 730 km/s. Phi angle orientation remained in a predominantly negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced as CH HSS influence continues throughout the forecast period (31 Mar-02 Apr).


24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels as CH HSS influences continued.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected early on day one (31 Mar) due to ongoing CH HSS effects. Conditions are then expected to be predominately unsettled to active, with a chance for isolated G1 storm levels, for the next two days (01-02 Apr) as lingering CH HSS effects persist.

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