Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 May 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2659 (13W64, Dao/beta) produced several B-class x-ray enhancements. Minor consolidation and decay was observed in its trailer spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (28-30 May) with a chance for C-class flare activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 13,200 pfu observed at 27/1535 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one (28 May) due to elevated geomagnetic field activity associated with the arrival of the 23 May CME. High flux levels are likely to return on days two and three (29-30 May) as CME effects subside.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (28-30 May).

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels until around 27/1445 UTC when a minor shock associated with a CME from 23 May arrived. Solar wind speed sharply increased from around 300 km/s to around 350 km/s at 27/1445 UTC, followed by an increase to a peak value of 463 km/s at 27/2243 UTC. Through the sheath, total magnetic field strength (Bt) ranged from 1-20 nT. (Bt) increased to a peak of around 23 nT and Bz deflected southward reaching -15 to -20 nT during the transition into the magnetic cloud between roughly 27/2000-2200 UTC. Afterward, a slow taper in the strength of the magnetic cloud was observed with values for Bt reaching 14 nT and Bz reaching near -1 nT by the end of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one through midday on day two (28-29 May) under the continued influence of the 23 May CME. A slow return to near-background solar wind values are expected late on day two through day three (29-30 May) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet until the 27/1500-1800 synoptic period when the geomagnetic field became unsettled with the arrival of the 23 May CME. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels, first observed during the 27/2100-2400 UTC period, increased to a peak ofG3 (Strong) storm levels for the 28/0300-0600 UTC period. Activity decreased to G2 (Moderate) and G1 (Minor) storm levels for the following two synoptic periods. Despite relatively slow wind speeds, sustained southward Bz of around -20 Bz provided near-optimal coupling with the Earths magnetic field which produced the strong geomagnetic response observed during the reporting period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (28 May) due to continued CME influence. Quiet to active levels are expected on day day two (29 May) as effects from the CME wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (30 May) as a nominal solar wind regime returns.

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