Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report,...

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2017 May 29 0600 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 May 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels to low levels over the period. Low levels were observed on 28 May due to a C3/Sf flare at 28/1928 UTC and a C1/Sf flare at 28/2313 UTC from Region 2659 (N13, L=041, class/area Dao/220 on 28 May). Other events included an approximate 25 degree filament eruption centered near N04W03 which was observed lifting off in H-alpha imagery beginning at 22/1900 UTC. An associated partial-halo CME was observed with the majority of the ejecta off the western limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 23/0512 UTC. WSA-Enlil modelling of the event showed an Earth-directed component with the associated CME.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 22-27 May with a peak flux of 26,098 pfu observed at 22/1650 UTC. Electron flux dropped to normal levels on 28 May due to the arrival of the 23 May CME.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) storm levels over the period. The period began under the declining influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds declined from approximately 570 km/s to near 300 km/s by 27 May while total field was between 3 nT and 7 nT. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 22-23 May with quiet levels from 24 May through most of 27 May. Beginning at 27/1447 UTC, a small shock was observed indicating the arrival of the 23 May CME. Total field increased from 3 nT to 10 nT while the solar wind increased from 303 km/s to 353 km/s. Although solar wind speed remained fairly steady between 350 km/s and 380 km/s, another increase in total field was observed with the transition into the magnetic cloud at 27/2000 UTC. Total field reached a maximum of 23 nT at 27/2230 UTC before it slowly declined to near 13 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component deflected southward to -20 nT beginning at 27/2036 UTC and remained negative until 28/1442 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 27/1536 UTC (19 nT at the Boulder magnetometer) indicating the arrival of the CME. The geomagnetic field responded with a period of G2 (Moderate) storm levels late on 27 May followed by G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels through midday on 28 May. A decrease to quiet to active levels was observed during the second half of 28 May.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 May - 24 June 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the forecast period with a chance for further isolated C-class flares on 29-30 May due to flare potential from Region 2659.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely from 29-30 May due to CME influence. High levels are also likely from 16-24 Jun due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 29 May due to waning CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 30 May through 09 Jun. From 10-19 Jun, unsettled to active levels are expected with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 16 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return from 20-24 Jun.

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