Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 May 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low this period. Region 2652 (N14, L=064/plage) produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive B9 flare at 01/0401 UTC, from beyond the west limb. Region 2653 (S08W52, Hrx/alpha) was the only region with sunspots but remained stable and unproductive throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (01-03 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,939 pfu observed at 30/1945 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (01-02 May) with a potential decrease to normal levels late on day three (03 May) with the arrival of the 30 Apr CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speed meandered between 350-420 km/s, Bt ranged between 2-7 nT, and the Bz component was mostly northward throughout the period. The phi angle transitioned from a negative to positive solar sector orientation at around 30/1700 UTC, with a brief period of variability observed between 30/2145-2330 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become slightly enhanced late on day one through early day two (01-02 May) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. An additional enhancement is possible by late on day three (03 May) due to the arrival of the 30 Apr CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a background solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (01-02 May) with active conditions possible late on day one due to the weak influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected for most of day three (03 May) with active periods possible late in the period due to the arrival of the 30 Apr CME.

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