Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 May 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 2656 (N11W21, Axx/alpha) and Region 2659 (N14E05, Hrx/alpha) were stable and and remained inactive throughout the period. Regions 2658 (S08W24, Axx/alpha) and Region 2660 (S11W21, Bxo/beta) exhibited slight decay and were inactive.

A partial HALO CME is visible off the West limb during a data gap in coronagraph imagery. As it currently stands, the images stop at 23/0236 UTC, then resume at 23/0824 UTC with a CME well underway. An area of dimming is visible in AIA/193 imagery starting near 23/0326 UTC. Further analysis will need to be conducted once the coronagraph imagery updates to determine if the two events are connected, and also to determine if the ejecta has an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, throughout the forecast period (23-25 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux of 26,098 pfu observed at 22/1650 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels, with a chance for very high levels, on all three days of the forecast period (23-25 May) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent, but waning CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 525 km/s, increased to 575 km/s, then decreased to near 500 km/s by the end of the period. Total field (Bt) was steady near 5 nT, while the Bz component mainly fluctuated between +/-3 nT, seeing a maximum southward deflection to -5 nT. The phi angle remained in a negative sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced, yet continue to slowly diminish, during the forecast period (23-25 May) as CH HSS influences continue.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23-24 May) as CH HSS effects persist. A decrease to mostly quiet levels is expected by day three (25 May) as the negative polarity CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

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