Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 May 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Region 2659 (N13W12, Cro/beta) grew in spot count and is now the only spotted region on the disk. The other three regions decayed to plage areas. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the summary period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, throughout the forecast period (24-26 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 9,333 pfu observed at 23/1430 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels, with a chance for very high levels, on days one and two (24-25 May) of the forecast period in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS influence. By day three (26 May), the arrival of the 23 May CME is likely to cause a redistribution of particles, returning flux levels to near background conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent, but waning CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from 520 km/s to 480 km/s. Total field (Bt) was steady near 4 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated slightly between +/-4 nT. The phi angle remained in a negative sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced, yet continue to slowly diminish on days one and two (24-25 May) as CH HSS influences continue to wane. Mid to late day on day three (26 May), solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced and disturbed with the arrival of the 23 May CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 May) as CH HSS effects persist. A decrease to mostly quiet levels is expected by day two (25 May) as the negative polarity CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position. Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with a slight chance for G1-Minor storm conditions, by midday on day three (26 May), with the arrival of the 23 May CME.

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