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Friday, July 28, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...



Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Jul 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no significant sunspot activity was observed this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels through days one and two (28-29 Jul). Solar activity is expected to increase to a chance for C-class flares on day three (30 Jul) due to the anticipated return of old active Region 2665 (S06, L=115). On its previous disk transit, the region produced a pair of M-class (R1-Minor) flares and numerous C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 16,547 pfu observed at 27/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at near-background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days (28-30 Jul) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed held steady at an average speed of about 450 km/s, but briefly spiked to 492 km/s late in the period. Total field strength values ranged between 1-5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. Phi remained in a predominately positive orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to background levels over the next three days (28-30 Jul) as CH HSS influence subsides and a nominal solar wind regime prevails.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (28 Jul) with generally quiet conditions expected on days two and three (29-30 Jul).

Don’t forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://ift.tt/17yXOGK

Live Aurora mapping is at http://ift.tt/2lYUS2h

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + http://ift.tt/1iWH4ta + http://ift.tt/1wJXm19

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

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Visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com

See the live aurora mapping is at http://ift.tt/2lYUS2h

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