Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Jul 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2669 (N18W43) decayed to plage. B-class activity, including a B9 event at 31/0913 UTC, was observed on the ESE limb from an area of enhanced brightening visible on GOES-15 SXI imagery. This area most likely signals the return of old Region 2665 (S06, L=113). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (31 Jul-02 Aug) due to the return of old Region 2665 (S06, L=113) on or about 31 July.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux of 7,053 pfu observed at 30/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on day one (31 Jul) with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Moderate to high levels are expected to return on days two and three (01-02 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind environment. Solar wind speed averaged about 325 km/s. Total field was steady near 5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive solar sector. A period of non-physical plasma values on the DSCOVR spacecraft was reported from 30/2335 UTC to 31/0354 UTC.

Forecast: The near-Earth solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced beginning on day one (31 Jul) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to continue to be enhanced through day two and slowly diminishing by day three (01-02 Aug).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected on days one and two (31 Jul-01 Aug) as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to influence the geomagnetic field. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected by day three (02 Aug) as CH HSS effects begin to wane.

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