Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Mar 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to occasional C-class flares. Region 2644 (N12E11, Dki/beta-gamma) exhibited consolidation in its leader spots, but separation between the leader and trailer spots. This region was responsible for several B-class and a few C-class flares during the period. Region 2645 (S09E51, Dao/beta) continued to show signs of growth in both areal coverage and magnetic complexity. It was responsible for occasional C-class flares, to include the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sf at 27/1820 UTC. Region 2646 (N07W67, Axx/alpha) decayed to a single spot during the period and was inactive.

A couple of narrow CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery ejecting off the eastern side of the solar disk. Analysis of the CMEs indicated that both appeared to be on a more eastern trajectory and are not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely, and a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) the next three days (28-30 Mar) due to the instability and magnetic complexity of Regions 2644 and 2645.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on day one (28 Mar), and increase to moderate to high levels on days two and three (29-30 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength began the period near 12 nT, but began a steady decrease to near 4 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component was primarily negative with the arrival of the CIR and CH HSS, reaching a maximum southward deflection near -13 nT. Solar wind speed began the period near 550 km/s, steadily increased to over 790 km/s, and ended the period around 700 km/s. Phi angle remained mostly negative (towards the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to remain near 700 km/s early on day one (28 Mar) based off recurrence data, and remain elevated on days two and three (29-30 Mar) as Earth continues under the influence of the negative, southern polar CH HSS extension.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly G1 (Minor) storm levels through 28/0600 UTC, with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) storming during the 27/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period. After 28/0900 UTC, conditions decreased to unsettled to active levels for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at primarily active to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels, with an isolated period of moderate (G2-Moderate) storming likely, early on day one (28 Mar) as CH HSS influence persists. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels, with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) storming likely on day two (29 Mar) as elevated solar wind speeds from the CH HSS continue. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to primarily unsettled to active levels, with an isolated period of minor (G1) storming remaining likely on day three (30 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue, but begin weakening.

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