Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Mar 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only B-class flares occurring during the period. Region 2644 (N12W02, Esi/beta) exhibited separation between the leader and trailer spots and grew slightly in length, but simplified magnetically to a beta group. Region 2645 (S09E36, Dai/beta) continued to grow slightly in area, as well as gaining a few more intermediate spots, but remained fairly inactive during the period. Region 2646 (N07W74, plage) decayed to an area of enhanced plage.

A narrow CME was observed in LASCO imagery off the west-southwest limb. Analysis concluded that this CME should miss the Earth and not have an impact. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with C-class flares likely, and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) the next two days (29-30 Mar) due primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 2644 and 2645. Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares on day three (31 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at predominantly high levels with a maximum flux of 14,903 pfu at 28/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at mostly high levels all three days (29-31 Mar), with a chance for very high levels by day three (31 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a CH HSS regime. Total field strength remained steady near 5 nT during the period. The Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT, until the end of the period when it moved into a positive orientation. Solar wind speed remained fairly consistent between 650-700 km/s, and the phi angle was negative (towards the Sun).

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next three days (29-31 Mar) as influence from the negative polarity CH HSS persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to active, with an isolated period of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming likely on day one (29 Mar) due to continued CH HSS effects. Day two (30 Mar) is expected to be unsettled to active, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming likely as CH HSS influences persist. The geomagnetic field on day three (31 Mar) is expected to be predominantly unsettled to active, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, as CH HSS effects continue.

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