Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 May 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Both spotted regions, Region 2656 (N11E03, Hax/alpha) and Region 2658 (S07W01, Hrx/alpha), were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, throughout the forecast period (21-23 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 5,380 pfu observed at 21/1150 UTC and still rising. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on all three days of the forecast period (21-23 May) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 750 km/s and gradually decreased to period ending values approaching 600 km/s. Total field (Bt) was steady between 4-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +4 nT to -5 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately negative sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced during the forecast period (21-23 May) as influences from the aforementioned CH HSS continue to impact Earths near-space environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels under negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21-22 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (23 May) as CH HSS effects wane.

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