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Tuesday, July 4, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...



Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Jul 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Numerous B-level enhancements, as well as an impulsive M1 flare observed at 03/1615 UTC, were associated with an an emerging sunspot group to the south of former Region 2664 (N18, L=314) just beyond the west limb. There were no numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk, and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the next three days (04-06 Jul) as the area producing this flare activity rotates beyond the west limb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (04-06 Jul) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Wind speeds decreased from 425 km/s early to end of period speeds near 350 km/s. Total field was between 2 and 5 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Weak enhancements are expected in the solar wind environment over the next three days (04-06 Jul), and the chance Earth may interface with a negative polarity CH HSS, originating from an ill-defined CH in the southern hemisphere.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels over the next three days (04-06 Jul), followed by the potential onset of a CH HSS on day two (05 Jul), lasting into day three (06 Jul).

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