Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report,...

Here is this week’s space weather and geophysical report, issued 2017 Jul 24 0308 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 July 2017

Solar activity was at low levels on 17-19 Jul and very low levels on 20-23 Jul. Region 2665 (S06, L=111, class/area Ekc/710 on 09 Jul) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C2 flare observed at 19/0007 UTC from around the west limb. Region 2666 (N13, L=103, class/area Cro/030 on 13 Jul) was mostly quiet as it decayed to plage before rotating around the west limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the summery period. A maximum flux of 13,630 pfu was observed at 19/1755 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels throughout the reporting period. On 17 Jul, the continuing influence of a CME caused quiet to active conditions with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) storm levels reported during the 1500-1800 UTC synoptic period. Waning CME effects led to quiet to unsettled conditions on 18 Jul. Conditions were quiet on 19 Jul through early on 20 Jul. Late on 20 Jul conditions reached unsettled as a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) became geoeffective. An isolated period of active was observed during the 0000-0300 UTC synoptic period on 21 July as total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased to near 10 nT. Following the SSBC was a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), causing solar wind speeds to increase from around 450 km/s to a peak of 800 km/s observed at 21/1804 UTC. With the exception of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions observed during the 22/0900-1200 UTC synoptic period, quiet to active conditions were observed through the remainder of the period under the influence of positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 July - 19 August 2017

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 30 Jul - 12 Aug due to the return of old Region 2665 (S06, L=115) as it rotates through the visible disk. Very low activity is expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. The influence of recurrent, positive polarity CH HSSs are expected to cause high levels from 24-29 Jul and again on 18-19 Aug. Moderate levels are expected on 30-31 Jul and the remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 05 Aug; quiet to active levels are likely on 24 Jul and 17-18 Aug; quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Aug and 19 Aug. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the influence of multiple, recurrent, positive polarity CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

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