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Monday, July 3, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...



Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Jul 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2664 (N18, L=313) produced multiple B-class flares, including a B8/Sf flare at 03/0637 UTC, after rotating around the west limb. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next three days (03-05 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (03-05 Jul) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected waning transient enhancements. Solar wind speeds showed a decreasing trend with a reported high value of 551 km/s at 02/1438 UTC and end of period values near 420 km/s. Total field strength also showed a decreasing trend, beginning the period near 9 nT and ending at approximately 2 nT. The Bz component was predominantly north with slight southward deviation to a low of -4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive solar sector until approximately 03/0200 UTC when it began a gradual transition into negative territory.

Forecast: Enhancements in the solar wind are expected to continue through day one (03 Jul) from the passage of the 28 Jun CME. Day two and three (04-05 Jul) will likely transition into weak enhancements from a small, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to persistent CME effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jul) with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels due to waning influence from the 28 Jun CME. A return to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions is expected on days two and three (04-05 Jul) as diminishing CME effects transition to the weak influence of a small, negative polarity CH HSS.

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