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Friday, July 7, 2017

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and...



Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2017 Jul 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Only B-class activity was observed from Region 2665 (S06E58, Eai/beta-gamma) despite being in a growth phase. Several new spots were observed emerging in the regions intermediate and trailing area. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. As Region 2655 continues to develop, there is an increased chance for C-class flare activity over the forecast period (07-09 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the next three days (07-09 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 350-410 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-8 nT while the Bz component was variable between +4/-6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be near nominal levels on days one and two (07-08 Jul). By early on day three (09 Jul) solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced as a positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to at quiet levels on day one (07 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Jul). By early on day three (09 Jul), a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels.

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