SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044

ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP44

QST de W1AW 

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA  October 31, 2014

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP044

ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Strong solar activity continued this week, with average daily

sunspot numbers rising 36 points to 119.9 and average daily solar

flux up 24 points to 198. The X-Ray background flux from GOES-15 has

ranged from C1.2 to C2.6 since October 19. RWC Prague predicts a

range from B2.0 to C1.5 from October 31 through November 6.

You can see daily X-ray flux at

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt. It also shows for

each day the number of new sunspot regions which appeared, and on

October 30 there were four new regions and the sunspot number was

121. This is the highest number of new regions to appear on any day

since August 14, when there were four, on December 31, 2013 when

there were also four new ones, and August 7, 2013, and April 5 2013.

Way back on January 4, 2013 five new regions appeared in one day.

If you are recording solar flux and sunspot data into a personal

archive, you will be happy to know that the DRAO site in Penticton

has their archive of solar flux data now current, and updated three

times per day. You can find it at

ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt

and at http://www.spaceweather.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-eng.php for

the html copy. The data has been updated infrequently over the past

couple of months.

You can also download an update from

http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp of the data file for Scott

Craig's solar data plotting utility. A new data file through October

29, 2014 is now up. It replaces the April 3, 2014 file. You can

update the data file weekly using Scott's program with new copies of

this bulletin. This gives you daily solar flux and sunspot numbers

stretching back over a quarter century, to January 1, 1989.

The Solar Data Plotting Utility only runs on the Windows operating

system, on all versions through Windows Xp. I currently use it in Xp

mode in Windows 7.

Our updated prediction has daily solar flux at 130 on October 31

through November 2, 125 on November 3-4, 120 on November 5-7, 160 on

November 8, 165 on November 9-10, 175 on November 11-12, then

peaking at 200 on November 19-20, and reaching a low of 110 on

December 12.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on October 30, 8 on October 31

through November 4, 12 on November 5, 8 on November 6-7, 5 on

November 8-9, 8 on November 10-11, then 5 and 8 on November 12-13,

12 on November 14-15, then 22, 15 and 10 on November 16-18, and 8 on

November 19-21.

OK1HH sees quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on October 31,

quiet conditions November 1, mostly quiet November 2, quiet to

unsettled November 3, quiet on November 4, quiet to active November

5, active to disturbed November 6, mostly quiet November 7, quiet to

unsettled November 8, quiet November 9, mostly quiet November 10-11,

quiet to unsettled November 12, mostly quiet November 13-14, quiet

to unsettled November 15, mostly quiet November 16, active to

disturbed November 17, quiet to active November 18, quiet to

unsettled November 19, mostly quiet November 20-22, quiet on

November 23, quiet to active November 24, and back to quiet on

November 25-26.

Conditions should be good this weekend for ARRL CW Sweepstakes. It

begins at 2100 UTC Saturday, November 1 and runs until 0259 UTC

Monday, but is limited to 24 hours. This is the weekend that

Daylight Saving Time ends so for those of us on the West Coast, that

actually runs from 2:00 PM PDT Saturday until 6:59 PM PST Sunday.

UTC Time is constant, so don't worry about any notion of gaining an

hour that the rest of the country considers when moving the clocks

back by 60 minutes on Sunday at 2:00 AM local time.

The Phone weekend for ARRL Sweepstakes is two weeks later.

If you are not a contester, it might be fun to give out contacts to

the bleary eyed hungry hordes in the last few hours of the event

when things have quieted down and those still participating are

desperate for new ones. You should get plenty of attention. For more

details, check http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes.

Often late in the contest casual operators showing up this late may

be confused about their ARRL Section, and give their state instead.

For most states, this works, but in some states it is a bit more

complicated. Check

http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Awards%20Application%20Forms/WASmap_Color.pdf

for a map, and you'll see that California is divided into nine

sections.

For a more detailed description, check

http://www.arrl.org/section-boundaries .

A week ago on October 24 Fred Honnold, KH7Y sent this: "Yesterday

starting at 2200 UTC worked many W6 and W7 stations some were 20

over S9 on 6 meters. I also worked TX, OK, NM, AZ and NV, all F2

propagation. I was spotted by JA, BV during this opening on back

scatter. Also many XE1, 2 and PY, LU, CX, ZP, CE worked and later on

in the evening VK, DU, ZL, and KG6."

Today Fred reported: "6 meters has been open every day, good

openings in the morning to South America, Some to the southern part

of the mainland. So far this month W6, W7, W5, XE1, 2 and 3, HK,

PJ4, CX, ZP, CP, LU, PY, CE, ZL, YJ0, VK, DU, 9M2, KG6, V73, FK8,

E51, T30, JA. So October has been great on 6 meters from KH6.

"The Sun sure went crazy there for 6 days or so. Looks like it is

going back to sleep. Will be interesting to see what next March,

April will bring. Those long path QSOs are really fun to make."

James French, W8ISS of Lincoln Park, Michigan sent this message last

Saturday: "I posted a picture I took last Thursday during the

partial eclipse. Even for what I got, you can easily see Sunspot

grouping 2192 there.

"See,

http://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=103902 .

"Taken with a Samsung M575 cell phone held up to the eyepiece of a

4-inch Meade Reflector."

An interesting article about magnetic reconnection converting

magnetic energy into explosive particle energy, came from Jim

Henderson, KF7E of Queen Creek, Arizona:

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/10/scientists-reveal-physics-behind-space-weather/

Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI, wrote: "Here's an item that suggests

recent research is explaining the mechanisms behind solar flares,

and may make it possible to predict solar flares themselves, not

just the probability of them."

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141023131611.htm

On October 26 Scott Bidstrup also wrote, "Propagation here in the

equatorial region has been much improved with the recent spate of

solar activity - the recent series of flares from the giant sunspot

region 2192 has raised the 304a radiation from the Sun, along with

long-wave X-radiation, and the F2 layer has responded accordingly.

The 10m PSK window has looked like the 20m window usually does -

packed wall to wall with digimode signals, mostly Europeans, but

with a lot of W4s and W5s as well. The rest of the upper HF bands

have been similarly crowded. Sure is good to see all those strong

signals after the recent doldrums.

"The presence of a lot of Stateside signals on 10m here has bode

well for 6 meters - JAs working into LU, CX and CE have become

almost a nightly occurrence. Remi, FK8CP, with his usual

persistence, has been working a lot of stations throughout the

Americas, Canada all the way to Chile, and there have been

occasional contacts between VK/ZL stations and the west coast of the

U.S. Last night, Remi's signal here in Costa Rica was an S9 for more

than two hours on and off.

"6m transequatorial openings from the Caribbean and Central America

into South America have been happening nightly, to the point where

the activity has dropped off noticeably simply because of everyone

having worked everyone else already - several times, in fact.

Occasionally, openings have begun as early as ten in the morning

till well past bedtime, on and off. On the DX maps, I've been seeing

occasional 6m contacts ducted along the Transequatorial Anomaly, too

- though, sadly, none have happened from here in Costa Rica. We've

even had a few Es openings from here into Venezuela and the Windward

Islands, though. Phil, TI5/N5BEK, reports hearing the PR8ZIX beacon

from mid-morning until late in the day, almost every day. It's so

frequent, he rarely bothers to even spot it anymore.

"73 from Costa Rica where it's finally drying out. The rainy season

is ending. Thank goodness! I can get some antenna work done!"

More 6 meter news from Rich Zwirko, K1HTV: "On October 21, with the

SFI hovering just below 200 we had some 6 Meter TEP to South

America. From my FM18ap Virginia QTH I worked two stations in

Uruguay, CX8DS on SSB and CX9AU on CW. Also heard were the LU2EE/B

and LU7YSb CW beacons.

"The following UTC day, October 22nd will be one that I will long

remember. I was chasing W1AW/7 and W1AW/8 on the HF bands when I

noticed a DX Cluster spot from WZ8D in Ohio that he had just worked

a New Caledonia station on 6 Meters. I tuned to 50.110 MHz and there

was FK8CP on CW. A quick call and at 0324Z (11:24 EDT, Oct 21) FK8CP

was in the K1HTV log. Remi was my 6M DXCC country #155. I quickly

called W3LPL in MD and a few minutes later Frank worked FK8CP, as

well as did his neighbor Bernie, W3UR, both in FM19.

"A few minutes later FK8CP, now on SSB, was on a different frequency

calling CQ. I called Remi on SSB and he said, 'You are already in my

log.' He continued calling CQ North America on both CW and SSB. His

signal varied from just at the noise level to S4. Remi was last

heard at my FM18ap Virginia QTH at 0415Z. In all, FK8CP was heard

here, for 55 minutes!

"Later that same Oct. 22 UTC date around 2340Z I heard ZL1RS on CW

for about 10 seconds. Dave, N4DB, who is 102 miles south of me heard

ZL1RS for about 2 minutes and was able to work him. Thirty-five

minutes later Dave also worked FK8CP. At that time I could hear

nothing from FK8CP. Talk about the 6 Meter spotlight effect! The

Magic Band can be that way.

"A few days later on October 25th on 6 Meters I worked CT1HZE and

EA4SV. Not sure if it was F2 because I was also hearing the VO1SEP/B

CW beacon at the same time, leading me to think that it may have

been Es propagation. With the SFI varying from around 180 to 218 for

over a week I wouldn't be surprised to see some loud E-W F2 skip

coming into the Mid-Atlantic area in the next week or so. Hope so!"

And finally, Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, "One unusual occurrence this

October has been the prevalence of sporadic-E propagation on 6

meters. There has been sporadic-E on a majority of the days so far

this month. A particularly intense Es opening on 6 meters took place

on Monday morning October 27. Es was present over 4 hours from the

Midwest states to New England, New York and New Jersey on 6 meters.

The 8 watt N2GHR/B FN30 beacon 50.078 MHz was solid copy during this

period for me in EM28, and K2MUB FN20 was 40 dB over S-9. This

opening created some Es links to F2 earlier for stations in New

England to Europe. Es was spotted between W1 and VO1, and then W1

stations linked on to western Europe.

"On Wednesday evening (October 29 UTC), a sporadic-E cloud over

western Nebraska set up an Es link from W8, W9 and W0 on via TEP to

FK8CP on 6. Many northern 8, 9 and 0 stations were able to work New

Caledonia that evening. W9RM DM58 heard the eastern stations via Es,

he is on the great circle path from them on out to FK8. The October

sporadic-E created interesting DX opportunities for many 6 meter

DXers.

"Typically sporadic-E is very rare on 6 meters in October, only the

month of March has less Es.

"To clarify I am referring to sporadic-E propagation on 50 MHz in

the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Not aurora associated Es,

equatorial Es or in the southern hemisphere.

"I am unsure of any direct connection between the higher solar flux

and solar activity and the sporadic-E occurrence. The higher solar

flux did raise F2 MUFs and brought the TEP zone where 50 MHz signals

may be propagated further north."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,

email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL

Technical Information Service web page at

http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the

numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past

propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good

information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve

overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL

bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 23 through 29 were 126, 147, 115, 138,

120, 109, and 84, with a mean of 119.9. 10.7 cm flux was 227.1,

217.8, 219.3, 216.6, 187.8, 167.2, and 150.4, with a mean of 198.

Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 10, 12, 14, 14, and 9,

with a mean of 11.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 9, 9,

11, 15, 11, and 7, with a mean of 10.

NNNN

/EX