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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP06
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 7, 2014
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA
Solar activity surged this week, with average daily sunspot numbers
increasing nearly 55 points from 101.4 to 156.3. Average daily solar
flux rose nearly 38 points from 142.9 to 180.4. These increases
compare the recent period, January 30 through February 5, with the
previous seven days.
Geomagnetic indices remained quiet. So quiet, in fact, that on
February 4 the high latitude college A index near Fairbanks, Alaska
was 0, because each of the 3-hour K index readings that day were 0.
The same thing happened back on January 19.
Geomagnetic numbers will increase this weekend, with planetary A
index predicted to be 5, 15, 10 and 8 on February 7-10, followed by
5 on February 11-16, 8 on February 17-18, 5 on February 19-24, then
8 on February 25, then 5 February 26 through March 1, and 12 on
March 2.
Solar flux should be strong, with values of 190, 185, 180, 170 and
160 on February 7-11, 155 on February 12-13, followed by 135, 130
and 140 on February 14-16, and 145 on February 17-22. Solar flux is
expected to gradually climb to 200 on March 1, drop slightly, then
peak at 210 on March 5, followed by a low of 130 on March 14 and
then another rise.
OK1HH supplies us with his geomagnetic outlook, and he predicts the
geomagnetic field will be quite to active February 7-8, mostly quiet
February 9-10, quiet of February 11, mostly quite February 12, quiet
on February 13-15, quiet to unsettled February 16, quiet to active
February 17, quiet to unsettled February 18, quiet on February
19-20, quiet to unsettled February 21, quiet on February 22, quiet
to unsettled February 23, and quiet to active February 24-25.
Let us now review the recent averages, to see where solar activity
has been and perhaps where it is headed.
The average daily sunspot number for the month of January 2014 was
126, the highest it has been since October-November 2013 when it was
127.2 and 125.7. Prior to that, the most recent date it was higher
was way back in 2003, when the average daily sunspot number was
132.8 in July, and 150 in January.
We track a 3-month moving average for sunspot numbers, and the
averages for the three months ending in September (2013), October,
November, December and January (2014) were 77.4, 91.2, 102.9, 123.7
and 123.3. The last previous 3-month average that was a high as
recent numbers was 128.9 ending in February 2003.
Looking over the numbers for the past few years to determine if
there was a double peak shows us high average sunspot numbers at the
most recent period, 123.7 and 123.3 ending in December 2013 and
January 2014, then 106.4 on both 3-month periods ending May and June
2013, then 118.8 and 118.6 ending in November and December 2012.
This suggests that our second peak for Cycle 24 is the highest,
although how that other peak (May-June 2013) will figure into a
12-month smoothed sunspot number is anybody's guess.
Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP005 mentioned
something amiss with some of the recent solar flux and planetary 45
day forecasts from USAF/NOAA. I emailed my spreadsheets of archives
for both predictions to a ham contact at NOAA, and they also saw the
problem. Apparently on some days the prediction from two days prior
was reported instead of the latest one, due to some software
problem. They are working on a solution, and updating the past
records as needed.
Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington wrote: "Due to the large
size and magnetic complexity of sunspots now, January of 2014 set
not only a new solar flux high and sunspot number (237 and 245,
respectively) as you pointed out in an earlier article, but also
exceeded the November 2011 average solar flux value of 153 to
approximately 157. Size does matter! It looks as if we are seeing a
nice carryover into February, however the overall trend and strength
of this cycle will still be a low one. Typically we see big flux
fireworks at the top of the cycle, and this one seems to be
following suit. Recently there was an article on QRZ.com by a solar
science astronomer in Arizona who recapped the trend in sunspot
strength as on the decline. Bottom line: Take advantage of the great
conditions while they last!"
K7RA heartily agrees.
Phil Plait's blog on Slate.com highlights a big sunspot, which he
calls "ridiculously huge." Check it out at
.
Mick, W3FJ of Williamsport, Pennsylvania wrote on January 31: "Just
a quick note to mention a brief opening this morning from about
1520Z to 1630Z when I had to leave for an appointment. 6 Meters was
open to a rather narrow area from my FN11 QTH in North Central PA
into Georgia and Alabama. I worked N3HJX, KG4YTP, and W4VAS all in
EM84 with good solid 59 signals. I also had a rather long QSO with
my old friend Burt, WA4VUT in EM50 in Alabama. Burt was consistently
59+ during our 10 to 15 minute QSO. Burt has been around the band
for many years and at age 87 sure doesn't look like he's going to
give it up soon."
The ARRL DX Bulletin
that the CQ World Wide WPX RTTY Contest is this weekend, running
from 0000 UTC Saturday, February 8 until 2359 UTC Sunday, February
9. In case that isn't clear, on the West Coast of North America (in
Pacific Standard Time) that would be 4:00 PM tonight (Friday,
February 7, 2014) through 3:59 PM PST Sunday, February 9. See
details at http://www.cqwpxrtty.com/ . The site has a nice
countdown
time.
And finally, I was visiting a rural library in a county north of me
and noticed a listing in their catalog for "The Radio Amateur's
Handbook." But the curious thing about it was that the record did
not list a publication date or edition number (now titled the "ARRL
Handbook," the 2014 copy is the ninety-first edition), and the
subtitle was "A Manual of Amateur Short Wave Radiotelegraphic
Communication."
I ordered it, and when it came in, I thought it must be a
reproduction, because it was in perfect condition, with all the
pages bright and white, no fading at all. It turned out to be the
1926 First Edition, and I was shocked to discover a signature on the
flyleaf: "F.E. Handy" and "Personal Copy" written next to the
signature. Francis Edward Handy, W1BDI was the original editor and
creator of the handbook, and was also the Communications Manager for
many years at the ARRL. He was also the ham who dreamed up Field Day
and the ARRL Sweepstakes.
A couple of decades back I saw a classified ad in the back of QST
placed by his son, offering for sale individual copies of his
father's personal collection of handbooks. I bought several, and he
included some blank W1BDI QSL cards designed by Gil, W1CJD, the
artist who drew those classic ARRL illustrations for many years. One
of the cards shows the fellow I bought the handbooks from, as a
child, playing catch with a large glass vacuum tube, much to his
father's distress.
I seem to recall that he had this first edition for sale at the
time, but I couldn't afford it. The library got it in December 2005,
and I can only assume that the buyer or the buyer's estate donated
it to the library. I have it here, and it is quite a remarkable
find.
Chapter One is titled, "What Is An Amateur?" and the third paragraph
begins: "There is untold pleasure in two-way amateur operating. The
covering of hundreds of miles and the handling of friendly messages
with low amounts of power lends an interest not found in any other
pastime. Perhaps the relaying of messages has not been sufficiently
mentioned. That is one of the amateur's principal activities.
Friendly messages are accepted at any amateur station. They are
passed on toward their destination from one station to another. No
charge is made for the service, and of course no responsibility can
be fixed for failure to perform. Usually messages are delivered by
telephone or by the operator in person as soon as they reach the
city of destination."
Chapter Two, titled "Getting Started" begins the second paragraph
with, "To understand and enjoy radio in the fullest sense we ought
to listen to all that takes place. The broadcast listener has but
skimmed the surface of radio fun. He has no conception of the joy
that will be his, once he has put his finger on the throbbing pulse
of two-way radio. Long waves, set up by frequencies below the
broadcast band, bring us a horde of flute-like signals. Press
messages, storm warnings, and weather reports from all over the
world tell their story to whomever will listen."
This first edition is truly a remarkable book.
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of the
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An
archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for January 30 through February 5 were 112, 87, 147,
163, 168, 183, and 234, with a mean of 156.3. 10.7 cm flux was
160.5, 165.7, 176.7, 189.8, 188.3, 188.1, and 193.5, with a mean of
180.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 5, 4, 6, 5, and 4,
with a mean of 4.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 2,
4, 5, 4, and 5, with a mean of 3.7.
NNNN
/EX 
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