SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016

ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16

QST de W1AW

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16 ARLP016

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA April 17, 2014

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP016

ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ARRL headquarters is closed for Good Friday on April 18, so the

bulletin comes to you a day early.

After a few days in the doldrums on April 8-13 with sunspot numbers

in the double digits, solar activity made a strong recovery over the

following three days, with daily sunspot numbers of 105, 149 and

245. Sunspot numbers have reached this level several times in the

past 12 months. On February 28, 2014 the daily sunspot number

reached 279, it was 245 on January 6, and back on November 15-17,

2013 it was 272, 213 and 282.

The average daily sunspot number was actually down this week

compared to last, dropping from 129.3 to 118.4. Average daily solar

flux was higher, rising from 142.2 to 149.1. There was one

geomagnetically active day, when the planetary A index reached 25 on

April 12. This was caused by a solar wind stream.

Predictions for solar flux made a big leap yesterday, when it was

predicted to be 190 on April 17-19, 185, 180 and 175 on April 20-22,

170 on April 23-24, 140 on April 25-27, 130 on April 28-29, 125 on

April 30, 120 on May 1-2, 125 on May 3-5 then peaking at just 145 on

May 12-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on April 17-18, 5 on April 19 to

May 10, 8 on May 11-12, then 5 for the remaining days of the 45-day

forecast period.

On April 12, OK1HH predicted the geomagnetic field to be quiet to

active on April 17, quiet April 18, mostly quiet April 19-20, quiet

to active April 21, quiet to unsettled April 22, mostly quiet April

23, quiet April 24, mostly quiet April 25-26, quiet April 27, mostly

quiet April 28, quiet April 29, mostly quiet April 30, quiet May

1-2, mostly quiet May 3, quiet to unsettled May 4, quiet May 5,

quiet to unsettled May 6, and quiet on May 7-8.

For the first time in many years, WWV again is transmitting on 25

MHz, on an experimental basis. A week ago David Crawford, KF4VXJ of

Raleigh, North Carolina reported hearing the 25 MHz signal on April

10 at 2118 UTC with some fading, with signal strength varying from

S5-S8. He included this in a reception report to WWV, along with

readings at 10, 15 and 20 MHz (2.5 and 5 MHz signals were

inaudible).

He got this reply: "Thanks for your email, and your reception report

of the WWV experimental broadcast at 25 MHz.

"WWV first began broadcasting on 25 MHz in 1946, but the broadcast

was suspended in 1977. Due to listener interest and changes in

broadcasting technology, NIST is pleased to be able to provide this

service on a limited basis once again. At present, the broadcast is

carried on a base-fed broadband monopole antenna. All normal WWV

frequencies operate on a center-fed half-wave dipole antenna, with a

dedicated backup transmitter that will come online automatically

should the main transmitter fail. The 25 MHz broadcast does not have

this capability at this time. Please note that the experimental 25

MHz broadcast may be interrupted without notice at any time.

"For the latest status in the 25 MHz broadcast, refer to the NIST

Radio Station WWV web site.

"http://www.nist.gov/pml/div688/grp40/wwv.cfm ."

Well that's it for this week. There were no other reports from

readers.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,

email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL

Technical Information Service web page at

http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the

numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past

propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good

information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve

overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL

bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for April 10 through 16 were 78, 83, 74, 95, 105,

149, and 245, with a mean of 118.4. 10.7 cm flux was 136.7, 137.6,

135.9, 137.1, 150.3, 161.9, and 183.9, with a mean of 149.1.

Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 8, 25, 16, 8, 6, and 5, with a

mean of 10.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 7, 16, 13, 7,

5, and 5, with a mean of 8.1.

NNNN

/EX