SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026

ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26

QST de W1AW 

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA  June 27, 2014

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP026

ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity continues to weaken, with average daily sunspot

numbers dropping nearly 69 points to 72.3, and average daily solar

flux down nearly 36 points to 98.8.

On Wednesday the predicted solar flux on Friday through Sunday, June

27-29 (Field Day weekend) was 105, 110 and 115, but on Thursday

those numbers were revised downward to 100, 105 and 105. Predicted

planetary A index for those dates is unchanged at 8, 12 and 8.

The predicted average solar flux for the next 7-day reporting

period, June 26 through July 2 was reported as 111.4 in the

propagation bulletin preview in the ARRL Letter, but that is now

revised to 100.4, little above 98.8 from the last reporting period,

June 19-25.

If we look at past bulletins for the 2014 calendar year, 98.8 is the

lowest average flux value reported. The highest average was 201.6 in

ARLP002, covering January 2-8, and the second was 180.4 in ARLP006,

covering January 30 through February 5. ARLP007 reported 171.9 the

following week. The weekly solar flux averages reported in bulletins

20 through 26, covering May 8 through June 25 were 157.5, 128.5,

110.3, 104.1, 146.4, 134.7 and 98.8.

How will this weekend compare with Field Day 2013? Average solar

flux reported in ARLP026 for last year, which covered June 20-26 was

122, which is not much higher, but I would not expect F-layer

propagation on 10 meters this weekend. However, sporadic-E is

likely.

The latest predicted solar flux for the near term is 100 on June 27,

105 on June 28-29, 100 on June 30 through July 3, 130 on July 4-5,

135, 140 and 135 on July 6-8, 130 on July 9-10, 125 on July 11, and

120 on July 12-13. Solar flux continues to drift downward reaching a

short term minimum of 95 on July 21, then a high of 140 on August 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12 and 8 on June 27-29, 5 on June

30 through July 1, 8 on July 2-3, then 5 on July 4-10, 8 on July 11,

5 on July 12-13, then 8, 12, 8 and 8 on July 14-17, and 5 after

that, returning to 8 on July 22-23.

OK1HH predicts quiet geomagnetic conditions on June 27, mostly quiet

June 28, quiet to active on June 29, quiet on June 30, mostly quiet

July 1-2, quiet to unsettled July 3-4, quiet to active July 5,

active to disturbed July 6, mostly quiet July 7, quiet to unsettled

July 8, quiet July 9, quiet to unsettled July 10, quiet on July 11,

mostly quiet July 12, quiet to unsettled July 13, quiet to active

July 14, active to disturbed July 15, quiet to unsettled July 16,

mostly quiet July 17, quiet July 18-20, mostly quiet July 21, and

quiet to unsettled July 22-23.

OK1HH also sees enhanced solar wind on July 5-7, again on July 9-12,

and on July 14-17.

Tomas Hood, NW7US, propagation editor for CQ Magazine has a special

video devoted to Field Day propagation. I have not seen it yet, but

Tomas tells me it will be available today at

http://nw7us.us/2014FDprop . He also has a Twitter feed at

http://Twitter.com/NW7US . Also check out this interview with him at

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ph94GAOJeUQ and hear how he was

mesmerized at a young impressionable age by the programming on WWV.

Space.com has a video about the solar telescope at California's Big

Bear Solar Observatory. See it at

http://www.space.com/26343-largest-solar-telescope-sun-video.html .

Thanks to John Campbell, K4NFE of Huntsville, Alabama for sending

along an article and video about the current solar mini-max, as they

call it. Read it at

http://www.space.com/26287-sun-solar-cycle-mini-maximum-video.html .

Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent in this

report about the All Asia CW Contest last weekend:

"The All Asia CW this year was quite a bit fun on 15 from here, but

the Asian activity level could have been much higher. In particular,

only a few Russian stations were worked. At the start of the

contest, conditions were not very good, but each morning and evening

was better than the one before as the contest progressed until

Sunday conditions (after 1200Z) were extremely good especially for a

SFI of only 98. The first night I was only able to work Japan and

Sakhalin Island despite hearing several Chinese stations and 9V1YC.

"Saturday morning I was able to log 9M2 and several HS prefixes

along with UN8 and some western Asians. Japan was improving, but

limited mainly to a few big guns before I had to QRT at 1400Z to get

ready to attend the W3LPL open house, a really nice and enjoyable

well attended event.

"Saturday evening was decent to JA, but was not able to run that

many JAs. I finally broke through to several Chinese and more Thai

stations as well as logging JT1. Around 0430Z, 15 was still open to

big gun JAs, HS, and across to UA9C, pretty amazing with the low

solar flux!

"From 1200Z onward the band probably never closed to Japan and all

of East Asia was loud peaking to SE Asia around 1500Z. Two 9V1s were

logged along with BV1, BX4, BH3, HL3, E29, XV9, XW3, BA4, VU3, and

many new JA Qs and prefixes. If I could hear a station, I could log

him pretty easily with 200 W to a 5 El Yagi.

"Sunday around 2000Z found JA signals about as loud as they can get

at this QTH, but alas it was Monday morning in Japan, so they were

mostly off to work.

"I QRT'ed for a dinner out and noticed what almost had to be out of

area Es QRM on the FM broadcast band while driving. 6 meters was

open very well to MO and southern IL and IN when I fired up at

around 0030Z. The opening extended a bit farther south and as close

as eastern TN and central KY before I QRT'ed around 0200Z. The skip

zone was quite short for 50 MHz allowing W4SOH to work me for state

49 and KA4MAY for his 48th state on 6 meters."

Bob Foster, N9BGC of Waverly, Iowa offers some tips for modest

stations operating Field Day:

"1. Try the 'hunt and pounce' method.

"2. Tune slowly. Think of the Jodie Foster movie, 'Contact.' Her Ham

father admonished her, 'Small steps, Ellie, small steps.'

"3. Don't try to bust into a pileup for very long. Move on and come

back. The big gun will still be there.

"4. Stations are hungry for contacts as the event winds down. That's

when they often make an extra effort to work the little guys.

"The band doesn't go dead just because Field Day ends. I often work

some pretty cool QSOs, once the band clears of Field Day traffic."

Also, remember in Field Day there are no rare sections, states or

countries. Every unique contact on a band or mode counts the same.

In fact, some casual operators don't even log the exchange or the

time, just the callsign on a dupe sheet, a separate sheet for each

band/mode combination.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,

email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL

Technical Information Service web page at

http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the

numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past

propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good

information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve

overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL

bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 19 through 25 were 108, 75, 75, 95, 64, 37,

and 52, with a mean of 72.3. 10.7 cm flux was 111.1, 102.2, 101.2,

94.2, 92.6, 93.5, and 97, with a mean of 98.8. Estimated planetary A

indices were 8, 9, 6, 4, 5, 6, and 6, with a mean of 6.3. Estimated

mid-latitude A indices were 10, 10, 7, 7, 7, 7, and 8, with a mean

of 8.

NNNN

/EX